Tuesday, 4 September 2012

Weekly Comment on Financial Markets 3 Sep 2012

Monday 3 September 2012

August was a quiet market for the equity markets,  commodities saw a revival and fixed income due to the European worries volatile.

Greece on track to be the first to be leave the Euro, and to default on its debt (again). As per my comments from 2011 Greece will go through a series of "soft" and "voluntary" restructurings before defaulting and asking for a massive debt write-off. The solution will be a new Brady plan, European style.

Italy and Spain might follow.

While politicians, ECB and EFSF / ESM still want to save these borrowers at any cost, time is running out. According to FT article of 3 Sep 2012 "Germans write off Greece, says poll"a majority of the Germans do not believe that Greece will ever pay its debt back and will change its economic policy. Tough message for the policy makers.

China slow down continues. 

First results from hedge funds indicate a positive month of August.

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